FairUpdated SEP 1, 2026

Springvale, ME

ZIP 04083· York County· Portland-South Portland, ME· 4,710 residents· Median income $81,299· Leaning Buyer

04083 · Springvale, ME has a HavenScore of 50 — affordability is the drag — prices are stretched against local incomes.

At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 35% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward buyers, a lean that began this month. Typical values were flat over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI).

Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.

Zillow ZHVI peaked at $371,743 in Jan 2025; the latest value is -1.1% from that peak, 18 months on. Since January 2019 it is +95.1%. The sharpest 12-month move was -0.7%, ending Jul 2026.

Median price
$367,608
-0.69% past 12 mo
Est. monthly payment
$2,365/ mo
20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · incl. tax + insurance
48
HavenScore: higher than 48% of scored ZIPs.
▲ +1 / 90d#7/73 in MEBuyer Score
Rank

This ZIP has fewer than 5,000 residents, so it isn’t ranked against larger markets. The HavenScore is shown for reference.

Switch perspective

Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.

Score inputs below recompute for this view

Affordability
37/100
Growth
51/100
Risk
58/100
Momentum
58/100
Livability
63/100
Score · trailing 12 mo
4050
+10 points
30-day
+1
90-day
+1
1-yr
+10

Snapshot

Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each

Median price
$367,608
down-0.7% 12 mo
Typical home value across the middle tier of homes here — a smoothed Zillow index, steadier than individual sale prices.
Median price: higher than 54% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $367,608.
Price-to-income
4.5×
Median home value divided by median household income. Under 4× has historically been comfortable; over 5× stretches most budgets.
Price-to-income: higher than 54% of scored ZIPs.
Est. monthly payment
$2,365
At the median value with 20% down, a 30-year fixed at 6.71%, plus property tax and insurance.
Est. monthly payment: higher than 41% of scored ZIPs.
Active listings
14
Homes listed for sale right now (Realtor.com). Rising inventory usually favors buyers; falling inventory favors sellers.
Active listings: higher than 11% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 14.
Days on market
53
How long the typical listing sits before going under contract. Shorter means a tighter market; longer means more room to negotiate.
Days on market: higher than 54% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 53.
Price cuts
+33.33%
Share of active listings that have lowered their asking price. Rising cuts usually precede softening values.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is +33.33%.
Median income
$81,299
Median household income here, from the latest US Census American Community Survey.
Population
4,710
Current resident estimate. Growth is a demand tailwind; decline is a structural risk.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 4,710.
Overvaluation
+104.52%
How far today's values sit above the long-run price trend. Positive means stretched; negative means discounted versus trend.
Vacancy
4.9%
Below-average. Share of housing units that are vacant in this ZIP, from the latest US Census ACS 5-year tables.
Owner-occupied
74%
of homes. Share of occupied housing units owned by their occupants (vs. rented), from the US Census ACS.
Denial rate
22.6%
Above-average. Share of mortgage applications denied in this ZIP, from the latest CFPB / FFIEC HMDA disclosures.
Lending activity
5,542
originations. Mortgage originations recorded in this ZIP in the most recent HMDA reporting year. Higher counts = more active lending market.
Net migration
+5.0%
net inflow. Net migration as a share of population, from IRS SOI county-to-county migration data. Positive = more people moving in than out.
Income inflow
$77k
average. Average gross income of households moving INTO this ZIP, from IRS SOI data. Higher = ZIP attracting higher-income households.

Place

What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn

Place profile
WalkabilityBelow-average walkability
EPA index 6.8 of 20 · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 47% of scored ZIPs
Transit accessNo transit data
EPA publishes no stop distance for most block groups
Typical commuteLonger commute than typical
30 minutes one way · US median ZIP 22 · US Census ACS · above 8% of scored ZIPs
Jobs nearbyFew jobs nearby
98 jobs per sq mi · US Census LODES · above 36% of scored ZIPs
Physical riskVery Low (FEMA)
FEMA National Risk Index composite · Dec 2025 release · above 99% of scored ZIPs

Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score

Hazard ledger · FEMA National Risk Index

Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 31 scored ZIPs in York County

Everyday prices · BEA Regional Price Parities

Everyday prices in the Portland metro run 2% above the US average (BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024).

Rents in the index run 5% above the US average.

$75,000 at US-average prices buys what $76,400 buys here.

Metro-level index, US = 100 · 2024 · the Portland metro, not this ZIP alone

Housing cost burden · US Census ACS
Owners spending over 50% of income10%
US median ZIP 6%
Renters spending over 30% of income35%
US median ZIP 45%

What drives the score

Five pillars, each scored 0–100

Affordability

37/100

Growth momentum

51/100

Market risk

58/100

Momentum

58/100

Livability

63/100
Walkability
1–20 index · June 2021 vintage·EPA Smart Location Database
6.8
Transit access
Ranked against every scored ZIP·EPA Smart Location Database
Job density
Jobs per square mile, ranked against every scored ZIP·US Census LODES
97.7

See every input behind the pillars, with its value and source

Inside: Affordability: Price-to-income, Property tax rate, Median income · Growth momentum: 12-month price change, 12-month rent change, Population · Market risk: Overvaluation, Active listings, Price cuts · Momentum: Days on market, Buyer / seller gauge, Demand dial

Try Haven free for 14 days

Market signals

Tailwinds and headwinds right now

Top 4 of 14 signals
Tailwinds2
  • Strong migration inflow
    +5.0% net — people moving in
  • Strong job market
    2.9% unemployment
Headwinds2
  • Potentially overvalued
    105% above historical price-to-income
  • Widespread price cuts
    33% of listings cutting price
Buyer / seller gauge

Market conditions

Leaning Buyer

Conditions are easing in buyers' favor. The score reads more negotiation room than balanced.

-3
Strong buyerBalancedStrong seller
Trend
Cooling toward buyer
Gauge since Mar 2026Leaning Buyer now

Cycle read. Softening: prices -0.7% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward buyers.

Asking vs closed
Typical value (index)
$367,608
Zillow ZHVI · Sep 2026
Median sale price
$372,500
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sale-to-list
98.7%
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sold above list
33.3%
Redfin · Sep 2026

The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown.

Momentum check

What's changed in the last 90 days

🔒 Haven
Locked

Median price

🔒 Haven
Locked

Inventory

🔒 Haven
Locked

Days on market

🔒 Haven
Locked

Price cuts

Change vs. prior 90 days · arrow shows direction, not whether it’s good or bad

Pulse signals unlock with Haven, plus a one-line market interpretation.

The 90-day numbers behind each tile open with Haven

Trend

Where it's been

Peak
$371,743
Jan 2025
From peak
-1.1%
18 mo ago
Since Jan 2019
+95.1%
Worst 12 mo
-0.7%
to Jul 2026
Best 12 mo
+26.4%
since 2018

Zillow ZHVI peaked at $371,743 in Jan 2025; the latest value is -1.1% from that peak, 18 months on. Since January 2019 it is +95.1%. The sharpest 12-month move was -0.7%, ending Jul 2026.

Cycle position — prices vs the model’s value estimate and the payment’s share of income vs five years ago — opens with Pro

Appreciation by window

Zillow ZHVI · rank among scored ZIPs
WindowChangePer yearUS rankMaine rank
1 yeardown-0.7%-0.7%/yrHigher than 23% nationallyHigher than 9% in Maine
3 yearsup+14.5%+4.6%/yrHigher than 63% nationallyHigher than 46% in Maine
5 yearsup+38.5%+6.7%/yrTop 20% nationallyHigher than 51% in Maine
10 yearsup+146.8%+9.5%/yrTop 5% nationallyTop 8% in Maine
Since 2000up+414.9%+6.4%/yr

Starter homes vs the top tier

Zillow ZHVI tiers · Jul 2026
Bottom third (starter homes)
$290,888
up+48% 5Yup+187% 10Y
Middle third
$367,608
up+36% 5Yup+142% 10Y
Top third
$479,475
up+32% 5Yup+120% 10Y

Starter homes here rose 48% in five years while top-tier homes rose 32% (Zillow ZHVI tiers) — the bottom of the market outpaced the top.

3-bedroom homes here run 32% above 2-bedrooms (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom); the ME median premium is 22%.

By home type · Zillow ZHVI mid tier
Single-family
$376,038
up+32% 5Y
Condo / co-op
$245,137
up+49% 5Y

Condos here are priced 35% below single-family homes (Zillow ZHVI by home type); over five years single-family rose 32% while condos rose 49%.

The historical reading — which months run highest and lowest here — opens with Haven

Rent, inventory, days on market, Zillow’s market heat, the % view and state and US reference lines open with Haven

Forecast

Where it's heading

The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.

Price Forecast

3-month projection · 80% range

🔒 Haven
3-month shown  |  6 & 12 months with Haven →
3-month
$365,549
-0.6%
80% range $355K$374.1K
6-month
🔒 Haven
12-month
🔒 Haven

Of the 3-month ranges we published since December 2025, 60% contained the actual price. Track record →

6- and 12-month projections, their 80% ranges, and what moves the forecast unlock with Haven.

Zillow's own published forecast has this ZIP's typical value rise 1.6% over the twelve months from July 2026 (Zillow Home Value Forecast).

Forecasts are the model’s projection, not a prediction. Actuals will differ.

See the 6- and 12-month price ranges for this ZIP and what moves the forecast

Haven · 14-day free trial · then from $8/mo

Try Haven free

Monthly cost

What you'd owe each month

Est. monthly payment
$2,365/ mo

20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · tax 1.24%

Principal$255
Interest$1,644
Property tax$380
Insurance$86
Rent vs buy

Rent data isn’t published for this ZIP, so we can’t compute a rent-vs-buy gap.

Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $1,026 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).

Payment share of income

35%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($2,365/mo against $81,299 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.

Price-to-income · ZIP vs state vs US

Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable

Run the numbers

Your price, rate, down payment and income

Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $2,280 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $382k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 7.2% gross rent yield.

Cost of ownership over time

Cumulative housing cost, interest paid, and equity built · 20% down · ZIP median income $81,299

See the 1-, 5-, and 30-year cost of owning here

Inside: Total housing cost · Interest paid · Principal paid · Equity built

Try Haven free for 14 days

Equity assumes flat home value; real appreciation could push it higher · Rate 6.71%

Not subscribing? The four-page report for ZIP 04083 is $19 once, no subscription. Haven is $12/mo while you hunt — cancel when you close.

Pro featurefrom $25/mo

Take the full report for this ZIP with you.

A four-page editorial PDF: market summary, full pillar breakdown, 5-year history with forecast, alternatives, and a 30-year cost-of-ownership table.

HavenScore Report04083Market AnalysisGENERATED FOR PRO MEMBERS78PILLAR BREAKDOWNHAVENSCORE.APP · PRO REPORT🔒 Pro

Not subscribing? Get this ZIP's report for $19, once — no subscription.

  • Branded PDF with all metrics
  • Includes forecast + scorecards
  • Suitable for client presentations
  • Unlimited exports

Comparable ZIPs

Same shape, lower entry

ZIPs the score groups near 04083 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).

Sources

Every number, traced

Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.

Zillow Research
Home values, rents, inventory, transactions
Realtor.com
Inventory, days on market, price-cut share
Redfin
Sale prices, transaction volume
US Census ACS
Income, population, vacancy, cost burden
Freddie Mac PMMS
Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates
FHFA HPI
Long-term price trends
HUD Small Area FMR
Per-ZIP fair market rents (rural fallback)
BEA & IRS
Personal income growth, net migration
Lending & accessibility
Lending and neighborhood-access signals
Research the restNo crime or school rating here — why. The primary sources:GreatSchoolsNCES School SearchFBI Crime Data Explorer

Get the HavenScore Weekly

Data-driven market takes and the week's biggest ZIP movers, every Tuesday. Want this ZIP specifically? Save it to your account — saved ZIPs get a monthly digest of what changed.

Optional — tells us which markets readers care about.

Free. Unsubscribe anytime.