← Methodology
Forecast · v1 · April 2026

The HavenScore forecast.

A machine-learning forecast model that publishes 3-, 6-, and 12-month price ranges for every scored ZIP. Separate from the composite HavenScore, validated against held-out history, and shipped with calibrated uncertainty bands.

01 · What it predicts

Three horizons. Every scored ZIP.

The model publishes 3-, 6-, and 12-month price-index forecasts for every ZIP that meets coverage on the composite score. Forecasts ship alongside the score on every ZIP page, with an issued-on date and a horizon toggle.

02· How it's built

Trained on decades of ZIP-level history.

The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) is a machine-learning forecast model trained on decades of ZIP-level price history. It learns from hundreds of market cycles across every major US region — booms, corrections, and the long flat stretches in between — and uses those patterns to project where each ZIP's price index is most likely to land at 3, 6, and 12 months.

03· How it's validated

Tested on years the model never saw.

We validate by holding out recent years that the model never sees during training, then scoring its predictions against what actually happened. We repeat that test across multiple market environments — different rate regimes, different inventory conditions, different regions — so the bands stay honest in more than one kind of market.

04 · What the band means

A range, not a number.

Every forecast ships with an 80% prediction band — meaning, in our historical tests, four out of five times the actual outcome landed inside the band. The band widens at longer horizons because real-world uncertainty grows the further out you look. The center line is the model's best estimate; the band is where outcomes typically land.

05 · Where it can miss

What no model can fully see.

Macro shocks, regime changes, and local events outside our data — a sudden rate move, a policy change, a regional employer leaving town — can push outcomes outside the band. The model captures decades of patterns; it cannot anticipate every shock. Read the forecast as one input among several, not a guarantee.

See the disclaimers for the full not-a-guarantee statement.

06 · How it shows up on a ZIP page

Reading the forecast block.

On any scored ZIP page you'll see an issued-on date, a horizon toggle (3 / 6 / 12 months), the prediction band, and the top factors pushing the forecast up or down. The forecast section is gated to Haven and above — Scout users see a teaser and the methodology link.

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