FairUpdated SEP 1, 2026

Niagara Falls, NY

ZIP 14305· Niagara County· Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY· 16,433 residents· Median income $49,588· Leaning Seller

14305 · Niagara Falls, NY has a HavenScore of 59 — affordability carries it — prices sit within reach of local incomes.

At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 26% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS) and runs $330 a month less than the median rent (Zillow ZORI). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward sellers, and has for 7 months. Typical values were flat over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI).

Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.

Zillow ZHVI peaked at $156,172 in Jul 2026, which is the latest value. Since January 2019 it is +112.3%. The sharpest 12-month move was +3.4%, ending Sep 2019.

Median price
$156,172
+6.95% past 12 mo
Est. monthly payment
$1,070/ mo
20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · incl. tax + insurance
CompareShare card
60
HavenScore: higher than 89% of scored ZIPs.
▲ +3 / 90d#5/79 in NYBuyer Score
Rank

Ranked #1,456 of 13,130 nationally · #807 of 6,756 mid-size ZIPs

Switch perspective

Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.

Score inputs below recompute for this view

Affordability
67/100
Growth
54/100
Risk
56/100
Momentum
51/100
Livability
62/100
Score · trailing 12 mo
65 → 59
-6 points
30-day
0
90-day
+3
1-yr
-6

Snapshot

Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each

Median price
$156,172
up+7.0% 12 mo
Typical home value across the middle tier of homes here — a smoothed Zillow index, steadier than individual sale prices.
Median price: higher than 8% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $156,172.
Median rent
$1,400
Typical monthly rent (Zillow ZORI, with HUD fair-market rent filling in for smaller markets).
Median rent: higher than 20% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $1,400.
Price-to-income
3.1×
Median home value divided by median household income. Under 4× has historically been comfortable; over 5× stretches most budgets.
Price-to-income: higher than 13% of scored ZIPs.
Est. monthly payment
$1,070
At the median value with 20% down, a 30-year fixed at 6.71%, plus property tax and insurance.
Est. monthly payment: higher than 10% of scored ZIPs.
Active listings
46
Homes listed for sale right now (Realtor.com). Rising inventory usually favors buyers; falling inventory favors sellers.
Active listings: higher than 47% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 46.
Days on market
41
How long the typical listing sits before going under contract. Shorter means a tighter market; longer means more room to negotiate.
Days on market: higher than 29% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 41.
Price cuts
+22.50%
Share of active listings that have lowered their asking price. Rising cuts usually precede softening values.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is +22.50%.
Median income
$49,588
Median household income here, from the latest US Census American Community Survey.
Population
16,433
Current resident estimate. Growth is a demand tailwind; decline is a structural risk.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 16,433.
Overvaluation
+133.33%
How far today's values sit above the long-run price trend. Positive means stretched; negative means discounted versus trend.
Vacancy
13.1%
Above-average. Share of housing units that are vacant in this ZIP, from the latest US Census ACS 5-year tables.
Owner-occupied
61%
of homes. Share of occupied housing units owned by their occupants (vs. rented), from the US Census ACS.
Denial rate
23.2%
Above-average. Share of mortgage applications denied in this ZIP, from the latest CFPB / FFIEC HMDA disclosures.
Lending activity
3,464
originations. Mortgage originations recorded in this ZIP in the most recent HMDA reporting year. Higher counts = more active lending market.
Net migration
-12.3%
net outflow. Net migration as a share of population, from IRS SOI county-to-county migration data. Positive = more people moving in than out.
Income inflow
$63k
average. Average gross income of households moving INTO this ZIP, from IRS SOI data. Higher = ZIP attracting higher-income households.

Place

What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn

Place profile
WalkabilityBelow-average walkability
EPA index 10.5 of 20 · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 72% of scored ZIPs
Transit accessStop within a 10-minute walk
514 m to the nearest stop · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 59% of scored ZIPs
Typical commuteShorter commute than typical
16 minutes one way · US median ZIP 22 · US Census ACS · above 91% of scored ZIPs
Jobs nearbyModerate employment nearby
447 jobs per sq mi · US Census LODES · above 58% of scored ZIPs
Physical riskRelatively Low (FEMA)
FEMA National Risk Index composite · Dec 2025 release · above 99% of scored ZIPs

Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score

Hazard ledger · FEMA National Risk Index

Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 18 scored ZIPs in Niagara County

Everyday prices · BEA Regional Price Parities

Everyday prices in the Buffalo metro run 4% below the US average (BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024).

Rents in the index run 19% below the US average.

$75,000 at US-average prices buys what $71,900 buys here.

Metro-level index, US = 100 · 2024 · the Buffalo metro, not this ZIP alone

Housing cost burden · US Census ACS
Owners spending over 50% of income5%
US median ZIP 6%
Renters spending over 30% of income55%
US median ZIP 45%

What drives the score

Five pillars, each scored 0–100

Affordability

67/100

Growth momentum

54/100

Market risk

56/100

Momentum

51/100

Livability

62/100
Walkability
1–20 index · June 2021 vintage·EPA Smart Location Database
10.5
Transit access
Ranked against every scored ZIP·EPA Smart Location Database
514.4
Job density
Jobs per square mile, ranked against every scored ZIP·US Census LODES
446.9

See every input behind the pillars, with its value and source

Inside: Affordability: Price-to-income, Property tax rate, Median income · Growth momentum: 12-month price change, 12-month rent change, Population · Market risk: Overvaluation, Active listings, Price cuts · Momentum: Days on market, Buyer / seller gauge, Demand dial

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Market signals

Tailwinds and headwinds right now

Top 6 of 14 signals
Tailwinds3
  • Affordable vs. income
    3.1× income — below the national median
  • Strong price appreciation
    +7.0% year-over-year
  • Limited new supply
    Only 0.8 permits per 1,000 — supply constrained
Headwinds3
  • Population outflow
    -12.3% net — people leaving
  • Potentially overvalued
    133% above historical price-to-income
  • Widespread price cuts
    23% of listings cutting price
Buyer / seller gauge

Market conditions

Leaning Seller

The score reads conditions tightening in sellers' favor.

+5
Strong buyerBalancedStrong seller
Trend
Stable
Gauge since Mar 2026Leaning Seller now

Cycle read. Accelerating: prices +7.0% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward sellers.

Asking vs closed
Typical value (index)
$156,172
Zillow ZHVI · Sep 2026
Median sale price
$107,500
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sale-to-list
95.8%
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sold above list
25.0%
Redfin · Sep 2026

The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown.

Momentum check

What's changed in the last 90 days

🔒 Haven
Locked

Median price

——
🔒 Haven
Locked

Inventory

——
🔒 Haven
Locked

Days on market

——
🔒 Haven
Locked

Price cuts

——

Change vs. prior 90 days · arrow shows direction, not whether it’s good or bad

Pulse signals unlock with Haven, plus a one-line market interpretation.

The 90-day numbers behind each tile open with Haven

Trend

Where it's been

Peak
$156,172
Jul 2026
From peak
0.0%
At peak
Since Jan 2019
+112.3%
Worst 12 mo
+3.4%
to Sep 2019
Best 12 mo
+27.4%
since 2018

Zillow ZHVI peaked at $156,172 in Jul 2026, which is the latest value. Since January 2019 it is +112.3%. The sharpest 12-month move was +3.4%, ending Sep 2019.

Cycle position — prices vs the model’s value estimate and the payment’s share of income vs five years ago — opens with Pro

Appreciation by window

Zillow ZHVI · rank among scored ZIPs
WindowChangePer yearUS rankNew York rank
1 yearup+7.0%+7.0%/yrTop 7% nationallyTop 18% in New York
3 yearsup+28.2%+8.6%/yrTop 4% nationallyTop 16% in New York
5 yearsup+52.3%+8.8%/yrTop 3% nationallyTop 10% in New York
10 yearsup+182.4%+10.9%/yrTop 2% nationallyTop 2% in New York
Since 2000up+320.3%+5.6%/yr——

Starter homes vs the top tier

Zillow ZHVI tiers · Jul 2026
Bottom third (starter homes)
$85,632
up+46% 5Yup+219% 10Y
Middle third
$156,172
up+49% 5Yup+176% 10Y
Top third
$241,929
up+42% 5Yup+121% 10Y

Starter homes here rose 46% in five years while top-tier homes rose 42% (Zillow ZHVI tiers) — the bottom of the market outpaced the top.

3-bedroom homes here run 34% above 2-bedrooms (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom); the NY median premium is 27%.

The historical reading — which months run highest and lowest here — opens with Haven

Rent, inventory, days on market, Zillow’s market heat, the % view and state and US reference lines open with Haven

Forecast

Where it's heading

The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.

Price Forecast

3-month projection · 80% range

🔒 Haven
—————
3-month shown  |  6 & 12 months with Haven →
3-month
$160,404
+2.7%
80% range $158.2K–$164.3K
6-month
🔒 Haven
12-month
🔒 Haven

Of the 3-month ranges we published since December 2025, 60% contained the actual price. Track record →

6- and 12-month projections, their 80% ranges, and what moves the forecast unlock with Haven.

Zillow's own published forecast has this ZIP's typical value rise 3.2% over the twelve months from July 2026 (Zillow Home Value Forecast).

Forecasts are the model’s projection, not a prediction. Actuals will differ.

See the 6- and 12-month price ranges for this ZIP and what moves the forecast

Haven · 14-day free trial · then from $8/mo

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Monthly cost

What you'd owe each month

Est. monthly payment
$1,070/ mo

20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · tax 1.40%

Principal$108
Interest$699
Property tax$182
Insurance$80
Rent vs buy
Median rent
$1,400
/ mo
Own (payment)
$1,070
/ mo
Monthly gap
$330owning is at or below rent today

Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $963 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).

Payment share of income

26%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($1,070/mo against $49,588 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.

Price-to-income · ZIP vs state vs US

Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable

Run the numbers

Your price, rate, down payment and income

Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $1,500 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $166k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 10.8% gross rent yield.

Cost of ownership over time

Cumulative housing cost, interest paid, and equity built · 20% down · ZIP median income $49,588

See the 1-, 5-, and 30-year cost of owning here

Inside: Total housing cost · Interest paid · Principal paid · Equity built

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Equity assumes flat home value; real appreciation could push it higher · Rate 6.71%

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Comparable ZIPs

Same shape, lower entry

ZIPs the score groups near 14305 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).

ZIP 14303
Niagara Falls
NY
59
  • Saves $43k
  • Similar commute
  • More walkable
  • Similar hazard risk
$113,095+4.65%
ZIP 14301
Niagara Falls
NY
58
  • Saves $38k
  • Similar commute
  • More walkable
  • Similar hazard risk
$118,349+1.42%
ZIP 13666
Newton Falls
NY
57
  • Saves $103k
  • Longer commute (+13 min)
  • Higher hazard risk
$52,861+2.34%
ZIP 14752
Lily Dale
NY
66
  • Saves $89k
  • Similar walkability
  • Similar hazard risk
$67,285-3.30%

Sources

Every number, traced

Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.

Zillow Research
Home values, rents, inventory, transactions
Realtor.com
Inventory, days on market, price-cut share
Redfin
Sale prices, transaction volume
US Census ACS
Income, population, vacancy, cost burden
Freddie Mac PMMS
Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates
FHFA HPI
Long-term price trends
HUD Small Area FMR
Per-ZIP fair market rents (rural fallback)
BEA & IRS
Personal income growth, net migration
Lending & accessibility
Lending and neighborhood-access signals
Research the restNo crime or school rating here — why. The primary sources:GreatSchools→NCES School Search→FBI Crime Data Explorer→

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