ZIP 64865· Newton County· Joplin, MO· 5,260 residents· Median income $60,886· Leaning Seller
64865 · Seneca, MO has a HavenScore of 52 — affordability carries it — prices sit within reach of local incomes.
At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 29% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward sellers, a lean that began this month. Typical values were flat over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI).
Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $217,798 in Mar 2026; the latest value is -0.3% from that peak, 4 months on. Since January 2019 it is +83.3%. The sharpest 12-month move was +0.3%, ending Mar 2026.
HavenScore: higher than 58% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 58% of scored ZIPs
▲ +6 / 90d#11/21 in MOBuyer Score
Rank
Ranked #5,932 of 13,130 nationally · #2,432 of 5,378 small market ZIPs
Switch perspective
Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.
Score inputs below recompute for this view
Affordability
56/100
Growth
48/100
Risk
52/100
Momentum
53/100
Livability
43/100
Score · trailing 12 mo
57 → 52
-5 points
30-day
+1
90-day
+6
1-yr
-5
01
Snapshot
Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each
Median price
$217,194
▲up+3.3% 12 mo
Typical home value across the middle tier of homes here — a smoothed Zillow index, steadier than individual sale prices.
Median price: higher than 20% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 20% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $217,194.
Price-to-income
3.6×
Median home value divided by median household income. Under 4× has historically been comfortable; over 5× stretches most budgets.
Price-to-income: higher than 25% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 25% of scored ZIPs
Est. monthly payment
$1,474
At the median value with 20% down, a 30-year fixed at 6.71%, plus property tax and insurance.
Est. monthly payment: higher than 19% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 19% of scored ZIPs
Active listings
26
Homes listed for sale right now (Realtor.com). Rising inventory usually favors buyers; falling inventory favors sellers.
Active listings: higher than 27% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 27% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 26.
Days on market
46
How long the typical listing sits before going under contract. Shorter means a tighter market; longer means more room to negotiate.
Days on market: higher than 40% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 40% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 46.
Price cuts
+22.86%
Share of active listings that have lowered their asking price. Rising cuts usually precede softening values.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is +22.86%.
Median income
$60,886
Median household income here, from the latest US Census American Community Survey.
Population
5,260
Current resident estimate. Growth is a demand tailwind; decline is a structural risk.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 5,260.
Overvaluation
+55.90%
How far today's values sit above the long-run price trend. Positive means stretched; negative means discounted versus trend.
Vacancy
12.2%
Above-average. Share of housing units that are vacant in this ZIP, from the latest US Census ACS 5-year tables.
Owner-occupied
81%
of homes. Share of occupied housing units owned by their occupants (vs. rented), from the US Census ACS.
Denial rate
23.2%
Above-average. Share of mortgage applications denied in this ZIP, from the latest CFPB / FFIEC HMDA disclosures.
Lending activity
1,167
originations. Mortgage originations recorded in this ZIP in the most recent HMDA reporting year. Higher counts = more active lending market.
Net migration
+8.8%
net inflow. Net migration as a share of population, from IRS SOI county-to-county migration data. Positive = more people moving in than out.
Income inflow
$59k
average. Average gross income of households moving INTO this ZIP, from IRS SOI data. Higher = ZIP attracting higher-income households.
02
Place
What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn
Place profile
WalkabilityLeast walkable
EPA index 4.9 of 20 · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 19% of scored ZIPs
Transit accessNo transit data
EPA publishes no stop distance for most block groups
Typical commuteTypical commute
24 minutes one way · US median ZIP 22 · US Census ACS · above 35% of scored ZIPs
Jobs nearbyFew jobs nearby
16 jobs per sq mi · US Census LODES · above 10% of scored ZIPs
Physical riskRelatively High (FEMA)
FEMA National Risk Index composite · Dec 2025 release · above 10% of scored ZIPs
Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score
Hazard ledger · FEMA National Risk Index
Composite
◆
Relatively High · county 90
Flood
score 93 · above 93% of ZIPs · county 92
Wildfire
score 91 · above 87% of ZIPs · county 89
Hurricane
score 41 · above 36% of ZIPs · county 44
Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 8 scored ZIPs in Newton County
Everyday prices · BEA Regional Price Parities
Everyday prices in the Joplin metro run 14% below the US average (BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024).
Rents in the index run 46% below the US average.
$75,000 at US-average prices buys what $64,300 buys here.
Metro-level index, US = 100 · 2024 · the Joplin metro, not this ZIP alone
Housing cost burden · US Census ACS
Owners spending over 50% of income7%
US median ZIP 6%
Renters spending over 30% of income42%
US median ZIP 45%
03
What drives the score
Five pillars, each scored 0–100
Affordability
56/100
Growth momentum
48/100
Market risk
52/100
Momentum
53/100
Livability
43/100
Walkability
1–20 index · June 2021 vintage·EPA Smart Location Database
4.9
Transit access
Ranked against every scored ZIP·EPA Smart Location Database
—
Job density
Jobs per square mile, ranked against every scored ZIP·US Census LODES
15.7
See every input behind the pillars, with its value and source
Inside: Affordability: Price-to-income, Property tax rate, Median income · Growth momentum: 12-month price change, 12-month rent change, Population · Market risk: Overvaluation, Active listings, Price cuts · Momentum: Days on market, Buyer / seller gauge, Demand dial
The score reads conditions tightening in sellers' favor.
+1
Strong buyerBalancedStrong seller
Trend
→Heating toward seller
Gauge since Mar 2026Leaning Seller now
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Buyer’sBalancedSeller’s
Cycle read. Accelerating: prices +3.3% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward sellers.
Asking vs closed
Typical value (index)
$217,194
Zillow ZHVI · Sep 2026
Median sale price
$229,900
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sale-to-list
—
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sold above list
0.0%
Redfin · Sep 2026
The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown. Redfin does not publish every ZIP every month; a dash means no closed-sale figure for the latest month.
05
Momentum check
What's changed in the last 90 days
🔒 Haven
Locked
Median price
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Inventory
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Days on market
——
Change vs. prior 90 days · arrow shows direction, not whether it’s good or bad
Pulse signals unlock with Haven, plus a one-line market interpretation.
The 90-day numbers behind each tile open with Haven
06
Trend
Where it's been
Peak
$217,798
Mar 2026
From peak
-0.3%
4 mo ago
Since Jan 2019
+83.3%
Worst 12 mo
+0.3%
to Mar 2026
Best 12 mo
+23.0%
since 2018
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $217,798 in Mar 2026; the latest value is -0.3% from that peak, 4 months on. Since January 2019 it is +83.3%. The sharpest 12-month move was +0.3%, ending Mar 2026.
Cycle position — prices vs the model’s value estimate and the payment’s share of income vs five years ago — opens with Pro
Appreciation by window
Zillow ZHVI · rank among scored ZIPs
Window
Change
Per year
US rank
Missouri rank
1 year
▲up+3.3%
+3.3%/yr
Higher than 68% nationally
Higher than 54% in Missouri
3 years
▲up+12.4%
+4.0%/yr
Higher than 56% nationally
Higher than 47% in Missouri
5 years
▲up+35.1%
+6.2%/yr
Higher than 71% nationally
Higher than 72% in Missouri
10 years
▲up+112.0%
+7.8%/yr
Top 20% nationally
Top 24% in Missouri
Since 2012
▲up+167.6%
+7.0%/yr
—
—
Starter homes vs the top tier
Zillow ZHVI tiers · Jul 2026
Bottom third (starter homes)
$128,504
▲up+42% 5Y▲up+153% 10Y
Middle third
$217,194
▲up+32% 5Y▲up+108% 10Y
Top third
$370,484
▲up+23% 5Y▲up+70% 10Y
Starter homes here rose 42% in five years while top-tier homes rose 23% (Zillow ZHVI tiers) — the bottom of the market outpaced the top.
3-bedroom homes here run 61% above 2-bedrooms (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom); the MO median premium is 43%.
The historical reading — which months run highest and lowest here — opens with Haven
Rent, inventory, days on market, Zillow’s market heat, the % view and state and US reference lines open with Haven
07
Forecast
Where it's heading
The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.
Price Forecast
3-month projection · 80% range
🔒 Haven
3-month shown | 6 & 12 months with Haven →
3-month
$218,736
+0.7%
80% range $215.7K–$222.5K
6-month
🔒 Haven
12-month
🔒 Haven
Of the 3-month ranges we published since December 2025, 60% contained the actual price. Track record →
6- and 12-month projections, their 80% ranges, and what moves the forecast unlock with Haven.
Zillow's own published forecast has this ZIP's typical value rise 2.4% over the twelve months from July 2026 (Zillow Home Value Forecast).
Forecasts are the model’s projection, not a prediction. Actuals will differ.
See the 6- and 12-month price ranges for this ZIP and what moves the forecast
Rent data isn’t published for this ZIP, so we can’t compute a rent-vs-buy gap.
Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $2,022 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).
Payment share of income
0%28%36%50%70%+
29%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($1,474/mo against $60,886 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.
Price-to-income · ZIP vs state vs US
This ZIP
3.6×
MO median ZIP
3.7×
US median ZIP
4.3×
Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable
09
Run the numbers
Your price, rate, down payment and income
Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $1,210 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $226k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 6.4% gross rent yield.
Cost of ownership over time
Cumulative housing cost, interest paid, and equity built · 20% down · ZIP median income $60,886
See the 1-, 5-, and 30-year cost of owning here
Inside: Total housing cost · Interest paid · Principal paid · Equity built
ZIPs the score groups near 64865 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).
Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.
Data-driven market takes and the week's biggest ZIP movers, every Tuesday. Want this ZIP specifically? Save it to your account — saved ZIPs get a monthly digest of what changed.