FairUpdated SEP 1, 2026

Newcastle, WY

ZIP 82701· Weston County· Gillette, WY· 5,411 residents· Median income $88,843· Leaning Buyer

82701 · Newcastle, WY has a HavenScore of 53 — growth is the soft spot — population, income, and price trends point the wrong way.

At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 21% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward buyers, and has for 7 months. Typical values moved higher over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI).

Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.

Zillow ZHVI peaked at $251,235 in Jul 2025; the latest value is -0.8% from that peak, 12 months on. Since January 2019 it is +52.6%. The sharpest 12-month move was -2.9%, ending Jan 2026.

Median price
$249,328
-0.76% past 12 mo
Est. monthly payment
$1,585/ mo
20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · incl. tax + insurance
CompareShare card
60
HavenScore: higher than 63% of scored ZIPs.
▲ +1 / 90d#2/12 in WYBuyer Score
Rank

Ranked #5,405 of 13,130 nationally · #2,207 of 5,378 small market ZIPs

Switch perspective

Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.

Score inputs below recompute for this view

Affordability
73/100
Growth
22/100
Risk
60/100
Momentum
56/100
Livability
31/100
Score · trailing 12 mo
62 → 53
-9 points
30-day
+1
90-day
+1
1-yr
-9

Snapshot

Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each

Median price
$249,328
down-0.8% 12 mo
Typical home value across the middle tier of homes here — a smoothed Zillow index, steadier than individual sale prices.
Median price: higher than 27% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $249,328.
Price-to-income
2.8×
Median home value divided by median household income. Under 4× has historically been comfortable; over 5× stretches most budgets.
Price-to-income: higher than 7% of scored ZIPs.
Est. monthly payment
$1,585
At the median value with 20% down, a 30-year fixed at 6.71%, plus property tax and insurance.
Est. monthly payment: higher than 3% of scored ZIPs.
Active listings
25
Homes listed for sale right now (Realtor.com). Rising inventory usually favors buyers; falling inventory favors sellers.
Active listings: higher than 26% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 25.
Days on market
76
How long the typical listing sits before going under contract. Shorter means a tighter market; longer means more room to negotiate.
Days on market: higher than 86% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 76.
Price cuts
+25.81%
Share of active listings that have lowered their asking price. Rising cuts usually precede softening values.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is +25.81%.
Median income
$88,843
Median household income here, from the latest US Census American Community Survey.
Population
5,411
Current resident estimate. Growth is a demand tailwind; decline is a structural risk.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 5,411.
Overvaluation
+31.92%
How far today's values sit above the long-run price trend. Positive means stretched; negative means discounted versus trend.
Vacancy
20.3%
Above-average. Share of housing units that are vacant in this ZIP, from the latest US Census ACS 5-year tables.
Owner-occupied
89%
of homes. Share of occupied housing units owned by their occupants (vs. rented), from the US Census ACS.
Denial rate
23.1%
Above-average. Share of mortgage applications denied in this ZIP, from the latest CFPB / FFIEC HMDA disclosures.
Lending activity
80
originations. Mortgage originations recorded in this ZIP in the most recent HMDA reporting year. Higher counts = more active lending market.
Net migration
-6.2%
net outflow. Net migration as a share of population, from IRS SOI county-to-county migration data. Positive = more people moving in than out.
Income inflow
$49k
average. Average gross income of households moving INTO this ZIP, from IRS SOI data. Higher = ZIP attracting higher-income households.

Place

What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn

Place profile
WalkabilityLeast walkable
EPA index 5.3 of 20 · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 27% of scored ZIPs
Transit accessNo transit data
EPA publishes no stop distance for most block groups
Typical commuteTypical commute
25 minutes one way · US median ZIP 22 · US Census ACS · above 29% of scored ZIPs
Jobs nearbyFew jobs nearby
1 jobs per sq mi · US Census LODES · above 1% of scored ZIPs
Physical riskRelatively High (FEMA)
FEMA National Risk Index composite · Dec 2025 release · above 30% of scored ZIPs

Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score

Hazard ledger · FEMA National Risk Index

Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 2 scored ZIPs in Weston County

Housing cost burden · US Census ACS
Owners spending over 50% of income5%
US median ZIP 6%
Renters spending over 30% of income18%
US median ZIP 45%

What drives the score

Five pillars, each scored 0–100

Affordability

73/100

Growth momentum

22/100

Market risk

60/100

Momentum

56/100

Livability

31/100
Walkability
1–20 index · June 2021 vintage·EPA Smart Location Database
5.3
Transit access
Ranked against every scored ZIP·EPA Smart Location Database
—
Job density
Jobs per square mile, ranked against every scored ZIP·US Census LODES
1.4

See every input behind the pillars, with its value and source

Inside: Affordability: Price-to-income, Property tax rate, Median income · Growth momentum: 12-month price change, 12-month rent change, Population · Market risk: Overvaluation, Active listings, Price cuts · Momentum: Days on market, Buyer / seller gauge, Demand dial

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Market signals

Tailwinds and headwinds right now

Top 6 of 14 signals
Tailwinds2
  • Affordable vs. income
    2.8× income — below the national median
  • Limited new supply
    Only 0.0 permits per 1,000 — supply constrained
Headwinds4
  • Population outflow
    -6.2% net — people leaving
  • Potentially overvalued
    32% above historical price-to-income
  • Widespread price cuts
    26% of listings cutting price
  • Slow-moving market
    76 days on market — homes sitting longer
Buyer / seller gauge

Market conditions

Leaning Buyer

Conditions are easing in buyers' favor. The score reads more negotiation room than balanced.

-24
Strong buyerBalancedStrong seller
Trend
Cooling toward buyer
Gauge since Mar 2026Leaning Buyer now

Cycle read. Softening: prices -0.8% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward buyers.

Asking vs closed
Typical value (index)
$249,328
Zillow ZHVI · Sep 2026
Median sale price
$170,000
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sale-to-list
98.8%
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sold above list
0.0%
Redfin · Sep 2026

The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown.

Momentum check

What's changed in the last 90 days

🔒 Haven
Locked

Median price

——
🔒 Haven
Locked

Inventory

——
🔒 Haven
Locked

Days on market

——

Change vs. prior 90 days · arrow shows direction, not whether it’s good or bad

Pulse signals unlock with Haven, plus a one-line market interpretation.

The 90-day numbers behind each tile open with Haven

Trend

Where it's been

Peak
$251,235
Jul 2025
From peak
-0.8%
12 mo ago
Since Jan 2019
+52.6%
Worst 12 mo
-2.9%
to Jan 2026
Best 12 mo
+12.5%
since 2018

Zillow ZHVI peaked at $251,235 in Jul 2025; the latest value is -0.8% from that peak, 12 months on. Since January 2019 it is +52.6%. The sharpest 12-month move was -2.9%, ending Jan 2026.

Cycle position — prices vs the model’s value estimate and the payment’s share of income vs five years ago — opens with Pro

Appreciation by window

Zillow ZHVI · rank among scored ZIPs
WindowChangePer yearUS rankWyoming rank
1 yeardown-0.8%-0.8%/yrHigher than 23% nationallyHigher than 23% in Wyoming
3 yearsup+12.5%+4.0%/yrHigher than 56% nationallyHigher than 42% in Wyoming
5 yearsup+28.4%+5.1%/yrHigher than 51% nationallyHigher than 40% in Wyoming
10 yearsup+48.9%+4.1%/yrHigher than 10% nationallyHigher than 28% in Wyoming
Since 2013up+59.0%+3.6%/yr——

Starter homes vs the top tier

Zillow ZHVI tiers · Jul 2026
Bottom third (starter homes)
$149,742
up+17% 5Yup+44% 10Y
Middle third
$249,328
up+24% 5Yup+44% 10Y
Top third
$455,109
up+20% 5Yup+51% 10Y

Starter homes here rose 17% in five years while top-tier homes rose 20% (Zillow ZHVI tiers) — the two ends of the market moved together.

3-bedroom homes here run 55% above 2-bedrooms (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom); the WY median premium is 36%.

The historical reading — which months run highest and lowest here — opens with Haven

Rent, inventory, days on market, Zillow’s market heat, the % view and state and US reference lines open with Haven

Forecast

Where it's heading

The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.

Price Forecast

3-month projection · 80% range

🔒 Haven
—————
3-month shown  |  6 & 12 months with Haven →
3-month
$249,228
-0.0%
80% range $241.9K–$256.2K
6-month
🔒 Haven
12-month
🔒 Haven

Of the 3-month ranges we published since December 2025, 60% contained the actual price. Track record →

6- and 12-month projections, their 80% ranges, and what moves the forecast unlock with Haven.

Zillow's own published forecast has this ZIP's typical value rise 0.7% over the twelve months from July 2026 (Zillow Home Value Forecast).

Forecasts are the model’s projection, not a prediction. Actuals will differ.

See the 6- and 12-month price ranges for this ZIP and what moves the forecast

Haven · 14-day free trial · then from $8/mo

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Monthly cost

What you'd owe each month

Est. monthly payment
$1,585/ mo

20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · tax 0.61%

Principal$173
Interest$1,115
Property tax$127
Insurance$170
Rent vs buy

Rent data isn’t published for this ZIP, so we can’t compute a rent-vs-buy gap.

Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $2,034 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).

Payment share of income

21%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($1,585/mo against $88,843 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.

Price-to-income · ZIP vs state vs US

Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable

Run the numbers

Your price, rate, down payment and income

Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $1,430 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $272k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 6.3% gross rent yield.

Cost of ownership over time

Cumulative housing cost, interest paid, and equity built · 20% down · ZIP median income $88,843

See the 1-, 5-, and 30-year cost of owning here

Inside: Total housing cost · Interest paid · Principal paid · Equity built

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Equity assumes flat home value; real appreciation could push it higher · Rate 6.71%

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Comparable ZIPs

Same shape, lower entry

ZIPs the score groups near 82701 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).

ZIP 82643
Midwest
WY
55
  • Saves $183k
  • Shorter commute (−7 min)
  • Similar walkability
  • Similar hazard risk
$66,273-10.13%
ZIP 82945
Superior
WY
56
  • Saves $155k
  • Similar commute
  • Similar walkability
  • Lower hazard risk
$94,334+11.75%
ZIP 82327
Hanna
WY
56
  • Saves $124k
  • Longer commute (+10 min)
  • Similar walkability
  • Similar hazard risk
$125,827+5.39%
ZIP 82083
Rock River
WY
46
  • Saves $76k
  • Similar commute
  • Similar walkability
  • Similar hazard risk
$173,075+2.02%

Sources

Every number, traced

Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.

Zillow Research
Home values, rents, inventory, transactions
Realtor.com
Inventory, days on market, price-cut share
Redfin
Sale prices, transaction volume
US Census ACS
Income, population, vacancy, cost burden
Freddie Mac PMMS
Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates
FHFA HPI
Long-term price trends
HUD Small Area FMR
Per-ZIP fair market rents (rural fallback)
BEA & IRS
Personal income growth, net migration
Lending & accessibility
Lending and neighborhood-access signals
Research the restNo crime or school rating here — why. The primary sources:GreatSchools→NCES School Search→FBI Crime Data Explorer→

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