Sun City, AZ
85351 · Sun City, AZ has a HavenScore of 52 — market conditions — inventory, days on market, price cuts — currently tilt in buyers' favor.
At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 38% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS) and runs about the same as the median rent (Zillow ZORI). The buyer/seller gauge leans firmly toward buyers, and has for 7 months. Typical values moved lower over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI).
Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $324,304 in Aug 2022; the latest value is -15.5% from that peak, 47 months on. Since January 2019 it is +47.7%. The sharpest 12-month move was -9.0%, ending Jul 2023.
Ranked #6,052 of 13,130 nationally · #3,207 of 6,756 mid-size ZIPs
Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.
Score inputs below recompute for this view
Snapshot
Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each
Place
What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn
Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score
Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 128 scored ZIPs in Maricopa County
Everyday prices in the Phoenix metro run 3% above the US average (BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024).
Rents in the index run 21% above the US average.
$75,000 at US-average prices buys what $77,500 buys here.
Metro-level index, US = 100 · 2024 · the Phoenix metro, not this ZIP alone
What drives the score
Five pillars, each scored 0–100
Market signals
Tailwinds and headwinds right now
- Declining prices-3.5% year-over-year
- Population outflow-4.1% net — people leaving
- Potentially overvalued65% above historical price-to-income
- Widespread price cuts22% of listings cutting price
- Slow-moving market80 days on market — homes sitting longer
Market conditions
Buyer's Market
Buyers hold the leverage. Concessions and below-asking offers are common.
Cycle read. Softening: prices -3.5% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward buyers.
The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown.
Momentum check
What's changed in the last 90 days
Trend
Where it's been
Forecast
Where it's heading
The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.
Monthly cost
What you'd owe each month
20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · tax 0.63%
Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $820 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).
38%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($1,628/mo against $50,812 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.
Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable
Run the numbers
Your price, rate, down payment and income
Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $2,230 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $338k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 7.9% gross rent yield.
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Comparable ZIPs
Same shape, lower entry
ZIPs the score groups near 85351 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).
- Saves $53k
- Similar commute
- Similar walkability
- Lower hazard risk
- Saves $156k
- Longer commute (+16 min)
- Less walkable
- Lower hazard risk
- Saves $134k
- Similar commute
- Less walkable
- Similar hazard risk
- Saves $126k
- Longer commute (+15 min)
- Less walkable
- Lower hazard risk
Sources
Every number, traced
Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.
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