CautiousUpdated SEP 1, 2026

San Francisco, CA

ZIP 94109· San Francisco County· San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA· 54,397 residents· Median income $112,201· Leaning Seller

94109 · San Francisco, CA has a HavenScore of 41 — downside-risk signals are what hold the score back.

At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 70% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS) and runs $2,774 a month more than the median rent (Zillow ZORI). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward sellers, a lean that began this month. Typical values moved higher over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI).

Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.

Zillow ZHVI peaked at $1,180,818 in Jan 2020; the latest value is -9.8% from that peak, 78 months on. Since January 2019 it is -9.3%. The sharpest 12-month move was -14.4%, ending May 2023.

Median price
$1,065,276
+8.25% past 12 mo
Est. monthly payment
$6,585/ mo
20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · incl. tax + insurance
CompareShare card
35
HavenScore: higher than 13% of scored ZIPs.
▲ +2 / 90d#21/166 in CABuyer Score
Rank

Ranked #11,593 of 13,130 nationally · #800 of 996 large market ZIPs

Switch perspective

Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.

Score inputs below recompute for this view

Affordability
31/100
Growth
52/100
Risk
26/100
Momentum
56/100
Livability
69/100
Score · trailing 12 mo
33 → 41
+8 points
30-day
0
90-day
+2
1-yr
+8

Snapshot

Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each

Median price
$1,065,276
up+8.3% 12 mo
Typical home value across the middle tier of homes here — a smoothed Zillow index, steadier than individual sale prices.
Median price: higher than 95% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $1,065,276.
Median rent
$3,811
up+25.0% 12 mo
Typical monthly rent (Zillow ZORI, with HUD fair-market rent filling in for smaller markets).
Median rent: higher than 96% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $3,811.
Price-to-income
9.5×
Median home value divided by median household income. Under 4× has historically been comfortable; over 5× stretches most budgets.
Price-to-income: higher than 94% of scored ZIPs.
Est. monthly payment
$6,585
At the median value with 20% down, a 30-year fixed at 6.71%, plus property tax and insurance.
Est. monthly payment: higher than 92% of scored ZIPs.
Active listings
53
Homes listed for sale right now (Realtor.com). Rising inventory usually favors buyers; falling inventory favors sellers.
Active listings: higher than 53% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 53.
Days on market
80
How long the typical listing sits before going under contract. Shorter means a tighter market; longer means more room to negotiate.
Days on market: higher than 89% of scored ZIPs.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 80.
Price cuts
+11.63%
Share of active listings that have lowered their asking price. Rising cuts usually precede softening values.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is +11.63%.
Median income
$112,201
Median household income here, from the latest US Census American Community Survey.
Population
54,397
Current resident estimate. Growth is a demand tailwind; decline is a structural risk.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 54,397.
Overvaluation
+21.05%
How far today's values sit above the long-run price trend. Positive means stretched; negative means discounted versus trend.
Vacancy
18.3%
Above-average. Share of housing units that are vacant in this ZIP, from the latest US Census ACS 5-year tables.
Owner-occupied
18%
of homes. Share of occupied housing units owned by their occupants (vs. rented), from the US Census ACS.
Denial rate
19.9%
Average. Share of mortgage applications denied in this ZIP, from the latest CFPB / FFIEC HMDA disclosures.
Lending activity
5,764
originations. Mortgage originations recorded in this ZIP in the most recent HMDA reporting year. Higher counts = more active lending market.
Net migration
+1.7%
net inflow. Net migration as a share of population, from IRS SOI county-to-county migration data. Positive = more people moving in than out.
Income inflow
$115k
average. Average gross income of households moving INTO this ZIP, from IRS SOI data. Higher = ZIP attracting higher-income households.

Place

What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn

Place profile
WalkabilityMost walkable
EPA index 16.1 of 20 · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 98% of scored ZIPs
Transit accessStop within a 5-minute walk
252 m to the nearest stop · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 92% of scored ZIPs
Typical commuteTypical commute
22 minutes one way · US median ZIP 22 · US Census ACS · above 49% of scored ZIPs
Jobs nearbyDense employment nearby
23,855 jobs per sq mi · US Census LODES · above 99% of scored ZIPs
Physical riskVery High (FEMA)
FEMA National Risk Index composite · Dec 2025 release · above 9% of scored ZIPs

Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score

Hazard ledger · FEMA National Risk Index

Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 26 scored ZIPs in San Francisco County

Everyday prices · BEA Regional Price Parities

Everyday prices in the San Francisco metro run 16% above the US average (BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024).

Rents in the index run 95% above the US average.

$75,000 at US-average prices buys what $86,700 buys here.

Metro-level index, US = 100 · 2024 · the San Francisco metro, not this ZIP alone

Housing cost burden · US Census ACS
Owners spending over 50% of income10%
US median ZIP 6%
Renters spending over 30% of income39%
US median ZIP 45%

What drives the score

Five pillars, each scored 0–100

Affordability

31/100

Growth momentum

52/100

Market risk

26/100

Momentum

56/100

Livability

69/100
Walkability
1–20 index · June 2021 vintage·EPA Smart Location Database
16.1
Transit access
Ranked against every scored ZIP·EPA Smart Location Database
251.7
Job density
Jobs per square mile, ranked against every scored ZIP·US Census LODES
23,854.8

See every input behind the pillars, with its value and source

Inside: Affordability: Price-to-income, Property tax rate, Median income · Growth momentum: 12-month price change, 12-month rent change, Population · Market risk: Overvaluation, Active listings, Price cuts · Momentum: Days on market, Buyer / seller gauge, Demand dial

Try Haven free for 14 days

Market signals

Tailwinds and headwinds right now

Top 6 of 14 signals
Tailwinds3
  • Strong price appreciation
    +8.3% year-over-year
  • Strong migration inflow
    +1.7% net — people moving in
  • Limited new supply
    Only 0.9 permits per 1,000 — supply constrained
Headwinds3
  • High price-to-income
    9.5× income — well above the national median
  • Potentially overvalued
    21% above historical price-to-income
  • Slow-moving market
    80 days on market — homes sitting longer
Buyer / seller gauge

Market conditions

Leaning Seller

The score reads conditions tightening in sellers' favor.

+5
Strong buyerBalancedStrong seller
Trend
Heating toward seller
Gauge since Mar 2026Leaning Seller now

Cycle read. Accelerating: prices +8.3% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward sellers.

Asking vs closed
Typical value (index)
$1,065,276
Zillow ZHVI · Sep 2026
Median sale price
$1,410,000
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sale-to-list
105.4%
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sold above list
55.5%
Redfin · Sep 2026

The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown.

Momentum check

What's changed in the last 90 days

🔒 Haven
Locked

Median price

——
🔒 Haven
Locked

Inventory

——
🔒 Haven
Locked

Days on market

——
🔒 Haven
Locked

Price cuts

——

Change vs. prior 90 days · arrow shows direction, not whether it’s good or bad

Pulse signals unlock with Haven, plus a one-line market interpretation.

The 90-day numbers behind each tile open with Haven

Trend

Where it's been

Peak
$1,180,818
Jan 2020
From peak
-9.8%
78 mo ago
Since Jan 2019
-9.3%
Worst 12 mo
-14.4%
to May 2023
Best 12 mo
+8.2%
since 2018

Zillow ZHVI peaked at $1,180,818 in Jan 2020; the latest value is -9.8% from that peak, 78 months on. Since January 2019 it is -9.3%. The sharpest 12-month move was -14.4%, ending May 2023.

Cycle position — prices vs the model’s value estimate and the payment’s share of income vs five years ago — opens with Pro

Appreciation by window

Zillow ZHVI · rank among scored ZIPs
WindowChangePer yearUS rankCalifornia rank
1 yearup+8.3%+8.3%/yrTop 4% nationallyTop 3% in California
3 yearsup+6.5%+2.1%/yrHigher than 32% nationallyHigher than 43% in California
5 yearsdown-4.7%-1.0%/yrHigher than 3% nationallyHigher than 4% in California
10 yearsdown-6.4%-0.7%/yrHigher than 1% nationallyHigher than 1% in California
Since 2000up+128.1%+3.2%/yr——

Starter homes vs the top tier

Zillow ZHVI tiers · Jul 2026
Bottom third (starter homes)
$642,016
down-11% 5Ydown-11% 10Y
Middle third
$1,065,276
down-7% 5Ydown-9% 10Y
Top third
$2,008,795
down-7% 5Ydown-12% 10Y

Starter homes here fell 11% in five years while top-tier homes fell 7% (Zillow ZHVI tiers) — the top of the market outpaced the bottom.

3-bedroom homes here run 55% above 2-bedrooms (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom); the CA median premium is 35%.

By home type · Zillow ZHVI mid tier
Single-family
$1,755,828
down-19% 5Y
Condo / co-op
$1,015,070
down-7% 5Y

Condos here are priced 42% below single-family homes (Zillow ZHVI by home type); over five years single-family fell 19% while condos fell 7%.

The historical reading — which months run highest and lowest here — opens with Haven

Rent, inventory, days on market, Zillow’s market heat, the % view and state and US reference lines open with Haven

Forecast

Where it's heading

The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.

Price Forecast

3-month projection · 80% range

🔒 Haven
—————
3-month shown  |  6 & 12 months with Haven →
3-month
$1,115,983
+4.8%
80% range $1.1M–$1.2M
6-month
🔒 Haven
12-month
🔒 Haven

Of the 3-month ranges we published since December 2025, 60% contained the actual price. Track record →

6- and 12-month projections, their 80% ranges, and what moves the forecast unlock with Haven.

Zillow's own published forecast has this ZIP's typical value hold flat over the twelve months from July 2026 (Zillow Home Value Forecast).

Forecasts are the model’s projection, not a prediction. Actuals will differ.

See the 6- and 12-month price ranges for this ZIP and what moves the forecast

Haven · 14-day free trial · then from $8/mo

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Monthly cost

What you'd owe each month

Est. monthly payment
$6,585/ mo

20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · tax 0.71%

Principal$740
Interest$4,765
Property tax$630
Insurance$450
Rent vs buy
Median rent
$3,811
/ mo
Own (payment)
$6,585
/ mo
Monthly gap
+$2,774owning costs more each month

Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $5,395 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).

Payment share of income

70%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($6,585/mo against $112,201 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.

Price-to-income · ZIP vs state vs US

Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable

Run the numbers

Your price, rate, down payment and income

Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $3,950 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $1.95M (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 2.4% gross rent yield.

Cost of ownership over time

Cumulative housing cost, interest paid, and equity built · 20% down · ZIP median income $112,201

See the 1-, 5-, and 30-year cost of owning here

Inside: Total housing cost · Interest paid · Principal paid · Equity built

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Equity assumes flat home value; real appreciation could push it higher · Rate 6.71%

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Comparable ZIPs

Same shape, lower entry

ZIPs the score groups near 94109 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).

ZIP 94102
San Francisco
CA
41
  • Saves $320k
  • Similar commute
  • Similar walkability
  • Similar hazard risk
$745,362+6.77%
ZIP 94103
San Francisco
CA
44
  • Saves $242k
  • Similar commute
  • Similar walkability
  • Similar hazard risk
$823,531+5.39%
ZIP 94124
San Francisco
CA
40
  • Saves $135k
  • Longer commute (+5 min)
  • Similar walkability
  • Similar hazard risk
$930,768+5.12%
ZIP 94107
San Francisco
CA
47
  • Saves $24k
  • Similar commute
  • Similar walkability
  • Similar hazard risk
$1,040,849+8.40%

Sources

Every number, traced

Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.

Zillow Research
Home values, rents, inventory, transactions
Realtor.com
Inventory, days on market, price-cut share
Redfin
Sale prices, transaction volume
US Census ACS
Income, population, vacancy, cost burden
Freddie Mac PMMS
Current 30-year fixed mortgage rates
FHFA HPI
Long-term price trends
HUD Small Area FMR
Per-ZIP fair market rents (rural fallback)
BEA & IRS
Personal income growth, net migration
Lending & accessibility
Lending and neighborhood-access signals
Research the restNo crime or school rating here — why. The primary sources:GreatSchools→NCES School Search→FBI Crime Data Explorer→

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