ZIP 95340 · Merced, CA · 38,045 residents · September 2026
Merced 95340: buyers hold the leverage.
Buyers hold the leverage. Listings sit longer and often close below asking. Typical home value $404K, −1.0% over 12 months; listings take 46 days to sell against 60 in the median U.S. ZIP.
Market balanceSeptember 2026
In Mar 2026: −44
Higher than 6% of scored ZIPs · #12,466 of 13,130 ZIPs with 5,000+ residents
Five parts, weighted. How the score works →
The reading
Where the balance sits this month and what moved it.
Month by month, since the gauge began
- Mar 2026−44
- Apr 2026−49
- May 2026−50
- Jun 2026−50
- Jul 2026−53
- Aug 2026—no reading on record
- Sep 2026−48
Each block is one month’s reading, −100 (buyers) to +100 (sellers). The series starts in March 2026. A dashed block has no reading on record. How the balance is measured →
What is pulling the needle
- 46 days on marketfaster than the U.S. median ZIP's 60 days
- 33% of listings cut pricemore than the U.S. median ZIP's 20%
- Sale-to-list 98.6%homes close below asking · Redfin, May 2026
- 94 active listings+18% vs a year ago
Blue pulls toward buyers, orange toward sellers. Realtor.com, September 2026; Redfin, May 2026.
Softening: prices −1.0% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward buyers.
Asking price vs sale price
Zillow's figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; Redfin's are closed sales for the month shown.
Last 90 days
How the typical value and the listings moved over the last three months.
Prices
Typical home value since 2001, and how far it moved over each window.
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $416,023 in January 2025; the latest value is −2.8% from that peak, 19 months on. Since January 2019 it is +52.6%. The sharpest 12-month move was −6.9%, ending June 2023.
Zillow's typical home value here, $404K in August 2026, is 40% above the median U.S. ZIP's $289K. Over the 12 months to August 2026, Zillow's typical home value moved −1.0% here and +2.8% in the median U.S. ZIP.
Price tiers and bedrooms
Starter homes here rose 17% in five years while top-tier homes rose 9% (Zillow ZHVI tiers) — the bottom of the market outpaced the top.
3-bedroom homes here run 34% above 2-bedrooms (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom); the CA median premium is 35%.
Zillow typical values by price tier, home type and bedrooms, August 2026.
How it ranks
Appreciation by window
| Window | Change | Per year | U.S. rank | California rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −1.0% | −1.0%/yr | Higher than 18% nationally | Higher than 19% in California |
| 3 years | +2.6% | +0.9%/yr | Higher than 30% nationally | Higher than 38% in California |
| 5 years | +12.5% | +2.4%/yr | Higher than 23% nationally | Higher than 41% in California |
| 10 years | +86.5% | +6.4%/yr | Higher than 59% nationally | Higher than 66% in California |
| Since 2001 | +171.8% | +4.0%/yr | — | — |
Zillow ZHVI · rank among scored ZIPs
Forecast
Where the typical value is likely to be over the next 3 to 12 months, with the range the model has earned, and up to 36 months with Pro.
Last three years, then the forecast band
HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) · run October 1, 2026A forecast is a range, not a promise; the confidence word says how wide it is. How the forecast works →
Of the 3-month ranges we published since December 2025, 54% contained the actual price.
Zillow's own published forecast has this ZIP's typical value hold flat over the twelve months from August 2026 (Zillow Home Value Forecast).
Payment
What a typical home here costs each month, against the typical income.
Monthly payment
$2,95254% of the median household income here ($65,141)Above the 36% line lenders use for total debt, for a median earner here. Rate is the Freddie Mac average for September 2026; tax is the state's statutory rate.
Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $1,166 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).
Buying costs $1,240 a month more than renting here before tax effects and maintenance; the gap is 72% of rent. Rents moved +0.8% over the year.
Under these assumptions the cumulative cost of owning and renting cross in year 27.
Like for like: the HUD fair market rent for a 3-bedroom here is $1,930 a month (FY 2026), against a typical 3-bedroom value of $386K (Zillow, August 2026) — a 6.0% gross rent yield.
Price-to-income ladder
Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable
The place
What it costs to own here beyond the price, and what the neighborhood is like.
Typical homes cost 6.2× the median household income here, against 8.1× in the median CA ZIP and 4.3× in the median U.S. ZIP (Zillow, August 2026; Census ACS 2023). Median household income is $65,141 here, against $71,388 in the median U.S. ZIP (Census ACS 2023).
Hazard ledger
FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release, refreshed annually · tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · the tick is the median of 17 scored ZIPs in Merced County.
Everyday prices
Everyday prices in the Merced metro run 2% below the U.S. average (BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024).
Rents in the index run 21% below the U.S. average.
$75,000 at U.S.-average prices buys what $73,700 buys here.
Metro-level index, U.S. = 100 · 2024 · the Merced metro, not this ZIP alone.
Housing cost burden
Census ACS 2023 five-year estimates · the tick is the U.S. median ZIP.
Behind the score
The inputs behind each of the five parts, against the U.S. median ZIP.
Livability
56Seller's report
A two-page brief for selling here: the market balance, recent signals and an illustrative net-proceeds estimate.
Nearby
4 scored California ZIPs within 12 miles; the ones below score within ten points and cost less.
Dots are California ZIP centers colored by market balance; the ring is 12 miles.
Sources and freshness
Every figure on this page, where it came from and when.
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