Guerneville, CA
95446 · Guerneville, CA has a HavenScore of 37 — growth is the soft spot — population, income, and price trends point the wrong way.
At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 43% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS) and runs $1,182 a month more than the median rent (Zillow ZORI). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward buyers, and has for 7 months. Typical values were flat over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI). The cautious band reflects the longer-run affordability and risk picture; the buyer lean is the near-term negotiating climate, and the two can differ.
Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $630,762 in Jun 2022; the latest value is -16.7% from that peak, 49 months on. Since January 2019 it is +7.1%. The sharpest 12-month move was -8.1%, ending Jun 2023.
This ZIP has fewer than 5,000 residents, so it isn’t ranked against larger markets. The HavenScore is shown for reference.
Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.
Score inputs below recompute for this view
Snapshot
Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each
Place
What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn
Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score
Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 31 scored ZIPs in Sonoma County
Everyday prices in the Santa Rosa metro run 8% above the US average (BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024).
Rents in the index run 40% above the US average.
$75,000 at US-average prices buys what $80,850 buys here.
Metro-level index, US = 100 · 2024 · the Santa Rosa metro, not this ZIP alone
What drives the score
Five pillars, each scored 0–100
Market signals
Tailwinds and headwinds right now
- Declining prices-3.8% year-over-year
- Population outflow-11.1% net — people leaving
- Potentially overvalued36% above historical price-to-income
- Widespread price cuts28% of listings cutting price
Market conditions
Leaning Buyer
Conditions are easing in buyers' favor. The score reads more negotiation room than balanced.
Cycle read. Softening: prices -3.8% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward buyers.
The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown.
Momentum check
What's changed in the last 90 days
Trend
Where it's been
Forecast
Where it's heading
The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.
Monthly cost
What you'd owe each month
20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · tax 0.71%
Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $1,815 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).
43%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($3,177/mo against $88,643 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.
Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable
Run the numbers
Your price, rate, down payment and income
Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $3,370 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $618k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 6.5% gross rent yield.
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Comparable ZIPs
Same shape, lower entry
ZIPs the score groups near 95446 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).
- Saves $63k
- Lower hazard risk
- Saves $383k
- Shorter commute (−10 min)
- Similar walkability
- Similar hazard risk
- Saves $375k
- Similar walkability
- Lower hazard risk
- Saves $374k
- Shorter commute (−15 min)
- Higher hazard risk
Sources
Every number, traced
Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.
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