The Distress map.
Highlights ZIP codes where home values have already fallen and our data suggests they're likely to keep softening. Built for investors hunting for the bottom — not for buyers looking for stable neighborhoods.
A 0–100 signal of market weakness.
The distress score reflects four signals — realized year-over-year price change, buyer leverage at the negotiating table, our 12-month price forecast, and lending stress. Higher scores mean stronger evidence of distress. ZIPs without enough data score as "no data" rather than zero.
What feeds the score.
- Year-over-year sale price changes (Redfin)
- How often homes sell below asking price (Redfin)
- The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) — our internal 12-month price forecast
- Mortgage application denial rates (HMDA)
Not a buy signal. Not undervalued.
Distressed isn't the same as undervalued — these markets may continue to weaken before they recover. We don't predict where the bottom is, and we don't evaluate individual properties. Read this alongside the HavenScore composite, not instead of it.
Refreshed weekly.
Component data lags 4–6 weeks from real-world transactions, depending on the source. We update the distress score every week when new data arrives.
Spotting active momentum.
On the map, ZIPs in our top 500 that also show fresh month-over-month momentum are outlined in black — that's the spotlight. They aren't necessarily the highest-distress ZIPs, but they're the ones where conditions are still moving against sellers.