ZIP 38824· Prentiss County· Tupelo, MS· 7,900 residents· Median income $46,753· Leaning Seller
38824 · Baldwyn, MS has a HavenScore of 49 — affordability carries it — prices sit within reach of local incomes.
At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 27% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward sellers, and has for 3 months. Typical values were flat over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI).
Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $160,045 in Jul 2026, which is the latest value. Since January 2019 it is +43.6%. The sharpest 12-month move was -7.9%, ending Mar 2023.
HavenScore: higher than 44% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 44% of scored ZIPs
▼ -3 / 90d#16/25 in MSBuyer Score
Rank
Ranked #7,597 of 13,130 nationally · #3,142 of 5,378 small market ZIPs
Switch perspective
Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.
Score inputs below recompute for this view
Affordability
59/100
Growth
49/100
Risk
41/100
Momentum
46/100
Livability
31/100
Score · trailing 12 mo
62 → 49
-13 points
30-day
-2
90-day
-3
1-yr
-13
01
Snapshot
Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each
Median price
$160,045
▲up+6.6% 12 mo
Typical home value across the middle tier of homes here — a smoothed Zillow index, steadier than individual sale prices.
Median price: higher than 8% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 8% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $160,045.
Price-to-income
3.4×
Median home value divided by median household income. Under 4× has historically been comfortable; over 5× stretches most budgets.
Price-to-income: higher than 21% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 21% of scored ZIPs
Est. monthly payment
$1,067
At the median value with 20% down, a 30-year fixed at 6.71%, plus property tax and insurance.
Est. monthly payment: higher than 14% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 14% of scored ZIPs
Active listings
8
Homes listed for sale right now (Realtor.com). Rising inventory usually favors buyers; falling inventory favors sellers.
Active listings: higher than 4% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 4% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 8.
Days on market
64
How long the typical listing sits before going under contract. Shorter means a tighter market; longer means more room to negotiate.
Days on market: higher than 73% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 73% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 64.
Price cuts
0.00%
Share of active listings that have lowered their asking price. Rising cuts usually precede softening values.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 0.00%.
Median income
$46,753
Median household income here, from the latest US Census American Community Survey.
Population
7,900
Current resident estimate. Growth is a demand tailwind; decline is a structural risk.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 7,900.
Overvaluation
+31.03%
How far today's values sit above the long-run price trend. Positive means stretched; negative means discounted versus trend.
Vacancy
17.5%
Above-average. Share of housing units that are vacant in this ZIP, from the latest US Census ACS 5-year tables.
Owner-occupied
81%
of homes. Share of occupied housing units owned by their occupants (vs. rented), from the US Census ACS.
Denial rate
33.8%
Above-average. Share of mortgage applications denied in this ZIP, from the latest CFPB / FFIEC HMDA disclosures.
Lending activity
302
originations. Mortgage originations recorded in this ZIP in the most recent HMDA reporting year. Higher counts = more active lending market.
Net migration
+19.6%
net inflow. Net migration as a share of population, from IRS SOI county-to-county migration data. Positive = more people moving in than out.
Income inflow
$40k
average. Average gross income of households moving INTO this ZIP, from IRS SOI data. Higher = ZIP attracting higher-income households.
02
Place
What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn
Place profile
WalkabilityLeast walkable
EPA index 3.4 of 20 · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 1% of scored ZIPs
Transit accessNo transit data
EPA publishes no stop distance for most block groups
Typical commuteTypical commute
22 minutes one way · US median ZIP 22 · US Census ACS · above 49% of scored ZIPs
Jobs nearbyFew jobs nearby
15 jobs per sq mi · US Census LODES · above 10% of scored ZIPs
Physical riskRelatively Moderate (FEMA)
FEMA National Risk Index composite · Dec 2025 release · above 37% of scored ZIPs
Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score
Hazard ledger · FEMA National Risk Index
Composite
◆
Relatively Moderate · county 70
Flood
score 56 · above 33% of ZIPs · county 56
Wildfire
score 79 · above 71% of ZIPs · county 80
Hurricane
score 59 · above 54% of ZIPs · county 59
Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 3 scored ZIPs in Prentiss County
Housing cost burden · US Census ACS
Owners spending over 50% of income8%
US median ZIP 6%
Renters spending over 30% of income42%
US median ZIP 45%
03
What drives the score
Five pillars, each scored 0–100
Affordability
59/100
Growth momentum
49/100
Market risk
41/100
Momentum
46/100
Livability
31/100
Walkability
1–20 index · June 2021 vintage·EPA Smart Location Database
3.4
Transit access
Ranked against every scored ZIP·EPA Smart Location Database
—
Job density
Jobs per square mile, ranked against every scored ZIP·US Census LODES
15.3
See every input behind the pillars, with its value and source
Inside: Affordability: Price-to-income, Property tax rate, Median income · Growth momentum: 12-month price change, 12-month rent change, Population · Market risk: Overvaluation, Active listings, Price cuts · Momentum: Days on market, Buyer / seller gauge, Demand dial
The score reads conditions tightening in sellers' favor.
+35
Strong buyerBalancedStrong seller
Trend
→Heating toward seller
Gauge since Mar 2026Leaning Seller now
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Buyer’sBalancedSeller’s
Cycle read. Accelerating: prices +6.6% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward sellers.
Asking vs closed
Typical value (index)
$160,045
Zillow ZHVI · Sep 2026
Median sale price
$234,975
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sale-to-list
—
Redfin · Sep 2026
Sold above list
0.0%
Redfin · Sep 2026
The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown. Redfin does not publish every ZIP every month; a dash means no closed-sale figure for the latest month.
05
Momentum check
What's changed in the last 90 days
🔒 Haven
Locked
Median price
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Inventory
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Days on market
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Price cuts
——
Change vs. prior 90 days · arrow shows direction, not whether it’s good or bad
Pulse signals unlock with Haven, plus a one-line market interpretation.
The 90-day numbers behind each tile open with Haven
06
Trend
Where it's been
Peak
$160,045
Jul 2026
From peak
0.0%
At peak
Since Jan 2019
+43.6%
Worst 12 mo
-7.9%
to Mar 2023
Best 12 mo
+19.4%
since 2018
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $160,045 in Jul 2026, which is the latest value. Since January 2019 it is +43.6%. The sharpest 12-month move was -7.9%, ending Mar 2023.
Cycle position — prices vs the model’s value estimate and the payment’s share of income vs five years ago — opens with Pro
Appreciation by window
Zillow ZHVI · rank among scored ZIPs
Window
Change
Per year
US rank
Mississippi rank
1 year
▲up+6.6%
+6.6%/yr
Top 8% nationally
Top 11% in Mississippi
3 years
▲up+11.8%
+3.8%/yr
Higher than 53% nationally
Top 21% in Mississippi
5 years
▲up+16.2%
+3.0%/yr
Higher than 21% nationally
Higher than 49% in Mississippi
10 years
▲up+36.3%
+3.1%/yr
Higher than 5% nationally
Higher than 33% in Mississippi
Since 2012
▲up+72.3%
+3.8%/yr
—
—
Starter homes vs the top tier
Zillow ZHVI tiers · Jul 2026
Bottom third (starter homes)
$100,162
▲up+14% 5Y▲up+35% 10Y
Middle third
$160,045
▲up+14% 5Y▲up+34% 10Y
Top third
$265,279
▲up+16% 5Y▲up+30% 10Y
Starter homes here rose 14% in five years while top-tier homes rose 16% (Zillow ZHVI tiers) — the two ends of the market moved together.
The historical reading — which months run highest and lowest here — opens with Haven
Rent, inventory, days on market, Zillow’s market heat, the % view and state and US reference lines open with Haven
07
Forecast
Where it's heading
The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.
Price Forecast
3-month projection · 80% range
🔒 Haven
3-month shown | 6 & 12 months with Haven →
3-month
$158,813
-0.8%
80% range $150.3K–$164.4K
6-month
🔒 Haven
12-month
🔒 Haven
Of the 3-month ranges we published since December 2025, 60% contained the actual price. Track record →
6- and 12-month projections, their 80% ranges, and what moves the forecast unlock with Haven.
Zillow's own published forecast has this ZIP's typical value rise 0.3% over the twelve months from July 2026 (Zillow Home Value Forecast).
Forecasts are the model’s projection, not a prediction. Actuals will differ.
See the 6- and 12-month price ranges for this ZIP and what moves the forecast
Rent data isn’t published for this ZIP, so we can’t compute a rent-vs-buy gap.
Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $1,621 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).
Payment share of income
0%28%36%50%70%+
27%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($1,067/mo against $46,753 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.
Price-to-income · ZIP vs state vs US
This ZIP
3.4×
MS median ZIP
3.3×
US median ZIP
4.3×
Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable
09
Run the numbers
Your price, rate, down payment and income
Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $1,250 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $200k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 7.5% gross rent yield.
Cost of ownership over time
Cumulative housing cost, interest paid, and equity built · 20% down · ZIP median income $46,753
See the 1-, 5-, and 30-year cost of owning here
Inside: Total housing cost · Interest paid · Principal paid · Equity built
ZIPs the score groups near 38824 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).
Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.
Data-driven market takes and the week's biggest ZIP movers, every Tuesday. Want this ZIP specifically? Save it to your account — saved ZIPs get a monthly digest of what changed.