ZIP 38849· Lee County· Tupelo, MS· 5,874 residents· Median income $72,018· Leaning Seller
38849 · Guntown, MS has a HavenScore of 54 — affordability carries it — prices sit within reach of local incomes.
At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 24% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward sellers, and has for 2 months. Typical values were flat over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI).
Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $214,787 in Jul 2026; the latest value is -0.3% from that peak, 1 months on. Since January 2019 it is +57.5%. The sharpest 12-month move was -3.1%, ending Feb 2018.
HavenScore: higher than 68% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 68% of scored ZIPs
▼ -1 / 90d#8/25 in MSBuyer Score
Rank
Ranked #4,477 of 13,130 nationally · #1,799 of 5,378 small market ZIPs
Switch perspective
Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.
Score inputs below recompute for this view
Affordability
70/100
Growth
36/100
Risk
65/100
Momentum
38/100
Livability
32/100
Score · trailing 12 mo
70 → 55
-15 points
30-day
+1
90-day
-1
1-yr
-15
01
Snapshot
Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each
Median price
$214,105
▲up+6.1% 12 mo
Typical home value across the middle tier of homes here — a smoothed Zillow index, steadier than individual sale prices.
Median price: higher than 19% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 19% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $214,105.
Price-to-income
3.0×
Median home value divided by median household income. Under 4× has historically been comfortable; over 5× stretches most budgets.
Price-to-income: higher than 10% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 10% of scored ZIPs
Est. monthly payment
$1,421
At the median value with 20% down, a 30-year fixed at 7.03%, plus property tax and insurance.
Est. monthly payment: higher than 5% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 5% of scored ZIPs
Active listings
16
Homes listed for sale right now (Realtor.com). Rising inventory usually favors buyers; falling inventory favors sellers.
Active listings: higher than 12% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 12% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 16.
Days on market
59
How long the typical listing sits before going under contract. Shorter means a tighter market; longer means more room to negotiate.
Days on market: higher than 57% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 57% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 59.
Price cuts
+23.08%
Share of active listings that have lowered their asking price. Rising cuts usually precede softening values.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is +23.08%.
Median income
$72,018
Median household income here, from the latest US Census American Community Survey.
Population
5,874
Current resident estimate. Growth is a demand tailwind; decline is a structural risk.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 5,874.
Overvaluation
+40.76%
How far today's values sit above the long-run price trend. Positive means stretched; negative means discounted versus trend.
Vacancy
10.9%
Average. Share of housing units that are vacant in this ZIP, from the latest US Census ACS 5-year tables.
Owner-occupied
82%
of homes. Share of occupied housing units owned by their occupants (vs. rented), from the US Census ACS.
Denial rate
26.4%
Above-average. Share of mortgage applications denied in this ZIP, from the latest CFPB / FFIEC HMDA disclosures.
Lending activity
1,578
originations. Mortgage originations recorded in this ZIP in the most recent HMDA reporting year. Higher counts = more active lending market.
Net migration
-7.3%
net outflow. Net migration as a share of population, from IRS SOI county-to-county migration data. Positive = more people moving in than out.
Income inflow
$57k
average. Average gross income of households moving INTO this ZIP, from IRS SOI data. Higher = ZIP attracting higher-income households.
02
Place
What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn
Place profile
WalkabilityLeast walkable
EPA index 4.1 of 20 · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 7% of scored ZIPs
Transit accessNo transit data
EPA publishes no stop distance for most block groups
Typical commuteTypical commute
25 minutes one way · US median ZIP 22 · US Census ACS · above 29% of scored ZIPs
Jobs nearbyFew jobs nearby
36 jobs per sq mi · US Census LODES · above 22% of scored ZIPs
Physical riskRelatively Moderate (FEMA)
FEMA National Risk Index composite · Dec 2025 release · above 37% of scored ZIPs
Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score
Hazard ledger · FEMA National Risk Index
Composite
◆
Relatively Moderate · county 62
Flood
score 54 · above 30% of ZIPs · county 42
Wildfire
score 74 · above 65% of ZIPs · county 70
Hurricane
score 59 · above 54% of ZIPs · county 59
Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 9 scored ZIPs in Lee County
Housing cost burden · US Census ACS
Owners spending over 50% of income3%
US median ZIP 6%
Renters spending over 30% of income26%
US median ZIP 45%
03
What drives the score
Five pillars, each scored 0–100
Affordability
70/100
Growth momentum
36/100
Market risk
65/100
Momentum
38/100
Livability
32/100
Walkability
1–20 index · June 2021 vintage·EPA Smart Location Database
4.1
Transit access
Ranked against every scored ZIP·EPA Smart Location Database
—
Job density
Jobs per square mile, ranked against every scored ZIP·US Census LODES
36
See every input behind the pillars, with its value and source
Inside: Affordability: Price-to-income, Property tax rate, Median income · Growth momentum: 12-month price change, 12-month rent change, Population · Market risk: Overvaluation, Active listings, Price cuts · Momentum: Days on market, Buyer / seller gauge, Demand dial
The score reads conditions tightening in sellers' favor.
+19
Strong buyerBalancedStrong seller
Gauge since Mar 2026Leaning Seller now
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Buyer’sBalancedSeller’s
Cycle read. Accelerating: prices +6.1% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward sellers.
Asking vs closed
Typical value (index)
$214,105
Zillow ZHVI · Oct 2026
Median sale price
$249,900
Redfin · Oct 2026
Sale-to-list
—
Redfin · Oct 2026
Sold above list
0.0%
Redfin · Oct 2026
The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown. Redfin does not publish every ZIP every month; a dash means no closed-sale figure for the latest month.
05
Momentum check
What's changed in the last 90 days
🔒 Haven
Locked
Median price
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Inventory
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Days on market
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Price cuts
——
Change vs. prior 90 days · arrow shows direction, not whether it’s good or bad
Pulse signals unlock with Haven, plus a one-line market interpretation.
The 90-day numbers behind each tile open with Haven
06
Trend
Where it's been
Peak
$214,787
Jul 2026
From peak
-0.3%
1 mo ago
Since Jan 2019
+57.5%
Worst 12 mo
-3.1%
to Feb 2018
Best 12 mo
+16.2%
since 2018
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $214,787 in Jul 2026; the latest value is -0.3% from that peak, 1 months on. Since January 2019 it is +57.5%. The sharpest 12-month move was -3.1%, ending Feb 2018.
Cycle position — prices vs the model’s value estimate and the payment’s share of income vs five years ago — opens with Pro
Appreciation by window
Zillow ZHVI · rank among scored ZIPs
Window
Change
Per year
US rank
Mississippi rank
1 year
▲up+6.1%
+6.1%/yr
Top 11% nationally
Top 15% in Mississippi
3 years
▲up+13.1%
+4.2%/yr
Top 25% nationally
Top 10% in Mississippi
5 years
▲up+25.4%
+4.6%/yr
Higher than 57% nationally
Top 8% in Mississippi
10 years
▲up+53.2%
+4.4%/yr
Higher than 16% nationally
Higher than 61% in Mississippi
Since 2012
▲up+90.9%
+4.5%/yr
—
—
Starter homes vs the top tier
Zillow ZHVI tiers · Aug 2026
Bottom third (starter homes)
$138,662
▲up+24% 5Y▲up+54% 10Y
Middle third
$214,105
▲up+29% 5Y▲up+57% 10Y
Top third
$314,650
▲up+21% 5Y▲up+43% 10Y
Starter homes here rose 24% in five years while top-tier homes rose 21% (Zillow ZHVI tiers) — the bottom of the market outpaced the top.
The historical reading — which months run highest and lowest here — opens with Haven
Rent, inventory, days on market, Zillow’s market heat, the % view and state and US reference lines open with Haven
07
Forecast
Where it's heading
The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.
Price Forecast
3-month projection · 80% range
🔒 Haven
3-month shown | 6 & 12 months with Haven →
3-month
$212,135
-0.9%
80% range $208.2K–$217.3K
6-month
🔒 Haven
12-month
🔒 Haven
Of the 3-month ranges we published since December 2025, 54% contained the actual price. Track record →
6- and 12-month projections, their 80% ranges, and what moves the forecast unlock with Haven.
Zillow's own published forecast has this ZIP's typical value rise 2.8% over the twelve months from August 2026 (Zillow Home Value Forecast).
Forecasts are the model’s projection, not a prediction. Actuals will differ.
See the 6- and 12-month price ranges for this ZIP and what moves the forecast
Rent data isn’t published for this ZIP, so we can’t compute a rent-vs-buy gap.
Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $1,649 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).
Payment share of income
0%28%36%50%70%+
24%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($1,421/mo against $72,018 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.
Price-to-income · ZIP vs state vs US
This ZIP
3.0×
MS median ZIP
3.3×
US median ZIP
4.3×
Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable
09
Run the numbers
Your price, rate, down payment and income
Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $1,260 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $235k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 6.4% gross rent yield.
Cost of ownership over time
Cumulative housing cost, interest paid, and equity built · 20% down · ZIP median income $72,018
See the 1-, 5-, and 30-year cost of owning here
Inside: Total housing cost · Interest paid · Principal paid · Equity built
ZIPs the score groups near 38849 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).
Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.
Data-driven market takes and the week's biggest ZIP movers, every Tuesday. Want this ZIP specifically? Save it to your account — saved ZIPs get a monthly digest of what changed.