ZIP 79403· Lubbock County· Lubbock, TX· 15,941 residents· Median income $45,343· Leaning Seller
79403 · Lubbock, TX has a HavenScore of 56 — affordability carries it — prices sit within reach of local incomes.
At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 24% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS) and runs $156 a month less than the median rent (Zillow ZORI). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward sellers, a lean that began this month. Typical values moved higher over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI).
Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $114,496 in Nov 2022; the latest value is -8.1% from that peak, 45 months on. Since January 2019 it is +27.1%. The sharpest 12-month move was -10.5%, ending Aug 2025.
HavenScore: higher than 78% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 78% of scored ZIPs
▲ +1 / 90d#11/25 in TXBuyer Score
Rank
Ranked #3,477 of 13,130 nationally · #1,906 of 6,756 mid-size ZIPs
Switch perspective
Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.
Score inputs below recompute for this view
Affordability
69/100
Growth
56/100
Risk
46/100
Momentum
47/100
Livability
44/100
Score · trailing 12 mo
72 → 57
-15 points
30-day
+1
90-day
+1
1-yr
-15
01
Snapshot
Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each
Median price
$105,174
▲up+8.2% 12 mo
Typical home value across the middle tier of homes here — a smoothed Zillow index, steadier than individual sale prices.
Median price: higher than 2% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 2% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $105,174.
Median rent
$1,079
▲up+0.6% 12 mo
Typical monthly rent (Zillow ZORI, with HUD fair-market rent filling in for smaller markets).
Median rent: higher than 4% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 4% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is $1,079.
Price-to-income
2.3×
Median home value divided by median household income. Under 4× has historically been comfortable; over 5× stretches most budgets.
Price-to-income: higher than 2% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 2% of scored ZIPs
Est. monthly payment
$923
At the median value with 20% down, a 30-year fixed at 7.28%, plus property tax and insurance.
Est. monthly payment: higher than 6% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 6% of scored ZIPs
Active listings
67
Homes listed for sale right now (Realtor.com). Rising inventory usually favors buyers; falling inventory favors sellers.
Active listings: higher than 60% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 60% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 67.
Days on market
58
How long the typical listing sits before going under contract. Shorter means a tighter market; longer means more room to negotiate.
Days on market: higher than 55% of scored ZIPs.Higher than 55% of scored ZIPs
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 58.
Price cuts
+12.66%
Share of active listings that have lowered their asking price. Rising cuts usually precede softening values.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is +12.66%.
Median income
$45,343
Median household income here, from the latest US Census American Community Survey.
Population
15,941
Current resident estimate. Growth is a demand tailwind; decline is a structural risk.
Twelve-month trend shown as a sparkline; the newest value is 15,941.
Overvaluation
+39.76%
How far today's values sit above the long-run price trend. Positive means stretched; negative means discounted versus trend.
Vacancy
11.6%
Average. Share of housing units that are vacant in this ZIP, from the latest US Census ACS 5-year tables.
Owner-occupied
61%
of homes. Share of occupied housing units owned by their occupants (vs. rented), from the US Census ACS.
Denial rate
20.1%
Average. Share of mortgage applications denied in this ZIP, from the latest CFPB / FFIEC HMDA disclosures.
Lending activity
5,604
originations. Mortgage originations recorded in this ZIP in the most recent HMDA reporting year. Higher counts = more active lending market.
Net migration
-5.8%
net outflow. Net migration as a share of population, from IRS SOI county-to-county migration data. Positive = more people moving in than out.
Income inflow
$64k
average. Average gross income of households moving INTO this ZIP, from IRS SOI data. Higher = ZIP attracting higher-income households.
02
Place
What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn
Place profile
WalkabilityLeast walkable
EPA index 5.4 of 20 · EPA Smart Location Database · Jun 2021 · above 29% of scored ZIPs
Transit accessNo transit data
EPA publishes no stop distance for most block groups
Typical commuteShorter commute than typical
17 minutes one way · US median ZIP 22 · US Census ACS · above 85% of scored ZIPs
Jobs nearbyFew jobs nearby
78 jobs per sq mi · US Census LODES · above 33% of scored ZIPs
Physical riskVery High (FEMA)
FEMA National Risk Index composite · Dec 2025 release · above 10% of scored ZIPs
Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score
Hazard ledger · FEMA National Risk Index
Composite
◆
Very High · county 81
Flood
score 38 · above 12% of ZIPs · county 47
Wildfire
score 88 · above 83% of ZIPs · county 85
Hurricane
score 33 · above 27% of ZIPs · county 33
Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 19 scored ZIPs in Lubbock County
Everyday prices · BEA Regional Price Parities
Everyday prices in the Lubbock metro run 9% below the US average (BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024).
Rents in the index run 24% below the US average.
$75,000 at US-average prices buys what $68,500 buys here.
Metro-level index, US = 100 · 2024 · the Lubbock metro, not this ZIP alone
Housing cost burden · US Census ACS
Owners spending over 50% of income6%
US median ZIP 6%
Renters spending over 30% of income53%
US median ZIP 45%
03
What drives the score
Five pillars, each scored 0–100
Affordability
69/100
Growth momentum
56/100
Market risk
46/100
Momentum
47/100
Livability
44/100
Walkability
1–20 index · June 2021 vintage·EPA Smart Location Database
5.4
Transit access
Ranked against every scored ZIP·EPA Smart Location Database
—
Job density
Jobs per square mile, ranked against every scored ZIP·US Census LODES
77.7
See every input behind the pillars, with its value and source
Inside: Affordability: Price-to-income, Property tax rate, Median income · Growth momentum: 12-month price change, 12-month rent change, Population · Market risk: Overvaluation, Active listings, Price cuts · Momentum: Days on market, Buyer / seller gauge, Demand dial
The score reads conditions tightening in sellers' favor.
+8
Strong buyerBalancedStrong seller
Gauge since Mar 2026Leaning Buyer now
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Buyer’sBalancedSeller’s
Cycle read. Accelerating: prices +8.2% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward sellers.
Asking vs closed
Typical value (index)
$105,174
Zillow ZHVI · Oct 2026
Median sale price
$178,000
Redfin · Oct 2026
Sale-to-list
—
Redfin · Oct 2026
Sold above list
0.0%
Redfin · Oct 2026
The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown. Redfin does not publish every ZIP every month; a dash means no closed-sale figure for the latest month.
05
Momentum check
What's changed in the last 90 days
🔒 Haven
Locked
Median price
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Inventory
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Days on market
——
🔒 Haven
Locked
Price cuts
——
Change vs. prior 90 days · arrow shows direction, not whether it’s good or bad
Pulse signals unlock with Haven, plus a one-line market interpretation.
The 90-day numbers behind each tile open with Haven
06
Trend
Where it's been
Peak
$114,496
Nov 2022
From peak
-8.1%
45 mo ago
Since Jan 2019
+27.1%
Worst 12 mo
-10.5%
to Aug 2025
Best 12 mo
+23.6%
since 2018
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $114,496 in Nov 2022; the latest value is -8.1% from that peak, 45 months on. Since January 2019 it is +27.1%. The sharpest 12-month move was -10.5%, ending Aug 2025.
Cycle position — prices vs the model’s value estimate and the payment’s share of income vs five years ago — opens with Pro
Appreciation by window
Zillow ZHVI · rank among scored ZIPs
Window
Change
Per year
US rank
Texas rank
1 year
▲up+8.2%
+8.2%/yr
Top 4% nationally
Top 2% in Texas
3 years
▼down-9.4%
-3.2%/yr
Higher than 4% nationally
Higher than 17% in Texas
5 years
▲up+3.5%
+0.7%/yr
Higher than 9% nationally
Higher than 23% in Texas
10 years
▲up+51.5%
+4.2%/yr
Higher than 14% nationally
Higher than 30% in Texas
Since 2000
▲up+109.7%
+2.8%/yr
—
—
Starter homes vs the top tier
Zillow ZHVI tiers · Aug 2026
Bottom third (starter homes)
$68,257
▲up+19% 5Y▲up+78% 10Y
Middle third
$105,174
▲up+5% 5Y▲up+53% 10Y
Top third
$214,733
▲up+5% 5Y▲up+45% 10Y
Starter homes here rose 19% in five years while top-tier homes rose 5% (Zillow ZHVI tiers) — the bottom of the market outpaced the top.
3-bedroom homes here run 70% above 2-bedrooms (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom); the TX median premium is 40%.
The historical reading — which months run highest and lowest here — opens with Haven
Rent, inventory, days on market, Zillow’s market heat, the % view and state and US reference lines open with Haven
07
Forecast
Where it's heading
The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.
Price Forecast
3-month projection · 80% range
🔒 Haven
3-month shown | 6 & 12 months with Haven →
3-month
$108,834
+3.5%
80% range $104.9K–$112.3K
6-month
🔒 Haven
12-month
🔒 Haven
Of the 3-month ranges we published since December 2025, 54% contained the actual price. Track record →
6- and 12-month projections, their 80% ranges, and what moves the forecast unlock with Haven.
Zillow's own published forecast has this ZIP's typical value rise 0.8% over the twelve months from August 2026 (Zillow Home Value Forecast).
Forecasts are the model’s projection, not a prediction. Actuals will differ.
See the 6- and 12-month price ranges for this ZIP and what moves the forecast
Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $2,399 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).
Payment share of income
0%28%36%50%70%+
24%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($923/mo against $45,343 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.
Price-to-income · ZIP vs state vs US
This ZIP
2.3×
TX median ZIP
3.7×
US median ZIP
4.3×
Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable
09
Run the numbers
Your price, rate, down payment and income
Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $1,500 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $109k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 16.4% gross rent yield.
Cost of ownership over time
Cumulative housing cost, interest paid, and equity built · 20% down · ZIP median income $45,343
See the 1-, 5-, and 30-year cost of owning here
Inside: Total housing cost · Interest paid · Principal paid · Equity built
ZIPs the score groups near 79403 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).
Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.
Data-driven market takes and the week's biggest ZIP movers, every Tuesday. Want this ZIP specifically? Save it to your account — saved ZIPs get a monthly digest of what changed.