Modesto, CA
95354 · Modesto, CA has a HavenScore of 38 — market conditions — inventory, days on market, price cuts — currently favor sellers.
At the ZIP's typical value, the estimated monthly payment takes 44% of the local median income (Zillow, US Census ACS) and runs $541 a month more than the median rent (Zillow ZORI). The buyer/seller gauge leans narrowly toward buyers, and has for 7 months. Typical values were flat over the last 90 days (Zillow ZHVI). The cautious band reflects the longer-run affordability and risk picture; the buyer lean is the near-term negotiating climate, and the two can differ.
Saved ZIPs on Haven get an email when the score moves 5+ points as monthly data lands, when the market gauge flips between buyers and sellers, when its valuation read moves against the model value, or when distress jumps in a week.
Zillow ZHVI peaked at $404,443 in Feb 2025; the latest value is -1.1% from that peak, 17 months on. Since January 2019 it is +56.4%. The sharpest 12-month move was -5.9%, ending Jun 2023.
Ranked #12,438 of 13,130 nationally · #6,392 of 6,756 mid-size ZIPs
Buyer view active — Leans harder on affordability and downside risk.
Score inputs below recompute for this view
Snapshot
Numbers at a glance, with a year of history under each
Place
What it is like to live here, and what could flood or burn
Bands are each source’s own · tick marks the national median ZIP · not blended into the score
Tract-level rolled up to ZIP · not a property-level rating · no future-year projection · refreshed annually (Dec 2025 release) · county tick = median of 24 scored ZIPs in Stanislaus County
Everyday prices in the Modesto metro run 4% above the US average (BEA Regional Price Parities, 2024).
Rents in the index run 8% above the US average.
$75,000 at US-average prices buys what $78,100 buys here.
Metro-level index, US = 100 · 2024 · the Modesto metro, not this ZIP alone
What drives the score
Five pillars, each scored 0–100
Market signals
Tailwinds and headwinds right now
- Limited new supplyOnly 1.6 permits per 1,000 — supply constrained
- High price-to-income6.1× income — well above the national median
- Population outflow-27.9% net — people leaving
- Elevated unemployment6.8% unemployment rate
- Potentially overvalued73% above historical price-to-income
- Widespread price cuts24% of listings cutting price
Market conditions
Leaning Buyer
Conditions are easing in buyers' favor. The score reads more negotiation room than balanced.
Cycle read. Softening: prices -0.4% over the trailing year, with the market leaning toward buyers.
The Zillow figure is a smoothed index of typical value, not a list price; the Redfin figures are closed sales for the month shown.
Momentum check
What's changed in the last 90 days
Trend
Where it's been
Forecast
Where it's heading
The HavenScore Forecast Model (v1) projects this ZIP’s median value at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons, with 80% prediction intervals; Pro adds 24- and 36-month horizons.
Monthly cost
What you'd owe each month
20% down · 30-yr fixed · 6.71% · tax 0.71%
Insurance uses the average homeowners premium insurers reported for this ZIP in 2022, $1,085 a year (Treasury Federal Insurance Office).
44%of the ZIP’s median income at the median value ($2,394/mo against $65,643 · Zillow, Freddie Mac PMMS, US Census ACS). Your own marker appears once you set an income or price in the calculator below.
Median home value ÷ median household income · Zillow ZHVI, US Census ACS · under 4× has historically been comfortable
Run the numbers
Your price, rate, down payment and income
Like for like: a 3-bedroom here rents for about $2,460 a month (HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2026) against a typical 3-bedroom value of $415k (Zillow ZHVI by bedroom) — a 7.1% gross rent yield.
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Comparable ZIPs
Same shape, lower entry
ZIPs the score groups near 95354 on Affordability and Growth — sorted by lowest median value. Each tile names what the lower price trades: commute (ACS), walkability band (EPA) and hazard rating (FEMA).
- Saves $19k
- Similar commute
- Similar walkability
- Similar hazard risk
- Saves $258k
- Shorter commute (−8 min)
- Less walkable
- Lower hazard risk
- Saves $250k
- Less walkable
- Lower hazard risk
- Saves $249k
- Shorter commute (−13 min)
- Similar hazard risk
Sources
Every number, traced
Every metric above is sourced from public datasets, normalized against the national ZIP distribution. Home values and rents refresh monthly; demographics refresh annually.
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